If it’s a weekend in Washington lately, there’s a good chance some rain fell. D.C. is on a run of five straight weekends with rain and is probably poised for another.
Saturday has been the rainiest weekend day. Fourteen out of 20 so far this year have produced measurable precipitation.
It’s not just this year — 2023 also had a disproportionate amount of rain that fell on the weekends.
The pesky weekend rain streak
If measurable rain falls this weekend for the sixth time in a row, it will become the longest such streak since 1959.
And this isn’t 2024’s only weekend rain streak. Precipitation fell on five straight weekends from Feb. 11 to March 9. In all, measurable precipitation has fallen on 15 of 20 weekends so far this year.
Only a handful of other years have seen such five-week-long streaks since 2000: 2019, 2015, 2011, 2003 and 2000.
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The persistently rainy weekends of late are reminders of weekends in 2023, which saw more than their share of rain. Rain fell on 33 of 52 weekends — the most since 34 in 1990.
Soggy Saturdays
The 14 rainy Saturdays so far this year have produced 6.2 inches of precipitation, more than any other day of the week. Tuesday is the next rainiest day with 4.22 inches. Sunday ranks third with 2.39 inches.
At least half an inch of rain has fallen on Saturday six times, including last week.
Saturday was also the wettest day in 2023; at least half an inch of rain fell on 11 days.
Thursday, meanwhile, is a real oddball and, apparently, the day to schedule outdoor plans. A half-inch or more of rain hasn’t fallen on that day since 2022.
Over time, however, these anomalies tend to even out. In weather data dating to 1872, each day of the week has a remarkably similar number of days with measurable rain.
The forecast for this weekend
Perhaps not surprising, the current forecast calls for a chance of showers and storms each day this holiday weekend. It doesn’t look like a washout, and the highest chance of showers and storms will probably come during the afternoon and evening. Saturday and Memorial Day have the highest rain chances, while showers and storms may end up pretty spotty on Sunday.
One difference between the upcoming weekend and recent ones is that temperatures may run near or even above average. Previous rainy weekends have mostly been on the cool side. The normal high temperature over the Memorial Day weekend is 79 degrees.
About the weekend after this one
For the first weekend in June, forecast models show conflicting signals. The European model projects periodic rain, while the American model shows sunny weather.
A forecast 10 days into the future is near the limit of useful predictions. That said, you might put your money on the rainier outcome if history is any indication.
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